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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 41-A.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model