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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to SF 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model