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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-27-J.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model