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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 28

Denver Broncos 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP