Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 74

Denver Broncos 26 – New Orleans Saints 3

(13:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.26 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model