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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 26

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to DEN 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model