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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 20

Denver Broncos 16 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model