Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 16

(14:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-M.Mims to DEN 34 for 12 yards (24-J.Abram; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model