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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 34

Denver Broncos 13 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.43 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model