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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 42 for 12 yards (21-R.Moss; 12-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model