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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model