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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 7-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model