4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to CIN 3, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model