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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 19 for 7 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model