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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP