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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to CLE 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 11 yards (27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model