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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model