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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 1 yard (31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP