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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 8-R.Rehkow punts 48 yards to CLE 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 22 for 6 yards (27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model