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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model