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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 41 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to TB 18, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 25 for 7 yards (81-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model