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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to BAL 8, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. Penalty on BAL-88-C.Kolar, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model