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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.86 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP