4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 70

Washington Commanders 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to BAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-D.Harty pushed ob at BAL 20 for 4 yards (87-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model