4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 6

Washington Commanders 13 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model