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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 44

Washington Commanders 13 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 10-T.Way punts 38 yards to BAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP