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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP