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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to TB 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 21 for no gain (36-R.Payton).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP