Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37

(11:49) 43-M.Hayball punts 58 yards to TB 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 29 for 11 yards (98-P.Turner; 49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.81 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model