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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-J.McMillan.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model