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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(:54) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-36-R.Payton.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model