4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP