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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to DEN 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-24-A.Finley.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.88 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP