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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 21

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end pushed ob at LAC 15 for 6 yards (25-J.Colson).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model