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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 39

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-D.Vele to LAC 2 for 37 yards (29-T.Still; 32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model