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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model