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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 80

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at DEN 45 for 18 yards (57-K.Welch; 48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model