4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model