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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model