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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model