4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 25

Chicago Bears 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 65-C.Shelton and 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-R.Robertson-Harris), Center-85-C.Kmet, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model