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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 37

Chicago Bears 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen to JAX 29 for 8 yards (30-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.32 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model