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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to CHI 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP