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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 36 for 15 yards (44-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model