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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 30 for 11 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model