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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 26 for 14 yards (23-T.Avery, 41-O.Reese).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model