Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(3:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 29 for 23 yards (81-J.Whyle, 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model