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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP