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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CLE 9, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-J.Darden to CLE 16 for 7 yards (28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.27 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model