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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 1-J.Hurts left tackle to PHI 43 for 3 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.46 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model